5 June 2014

Dear Prime Minister Harper: heads up from scientists

 Open Letter on the Joint Review Panel report regarding the Northern Gateway Project


May 26, 2014
The Right Hon. Stephen Harper
Prime Minister of Canada
Langevin Building
80 Wellington Street
Ottawa ON K1A 0A6

Dear Prime Minister Harper:

Based on the evidence presented below, we, the undersigned scholars, have concluded that the Joint
Review Panel’s (JRP) assessment of the Northern Gateway Project (the Project) represents a flawed
analysis of the risks and benefits to British Columbia’s environment and society. Consequently, the JRP report should not serve as the basis for concluding that the Northern Gateway Project is in the best interests of Canadians. We urge you in the strongest possible terms to reject this report.

The Canadian electorate expected the JRP ruling to present a balanced and appropriate consideration of the risks and benefits of the Project, drawing upon the best available evidence, and expressing a cogent rationale for the final ruling.

By our analysis, the Canadian electorate received a ruling that is not balanced or defensible due to five major flaws. The Panel’s review:

1. Failed to adequately articulate the rationale for its findings,
2. Considered only a narrow set of risks but a broad array of benefits, thereby omitting adequate
consideration of key issues,
3. Relied on information from the proponent, without external evaluation,
4. Contradicted scientific evidence contained in official government documents, and
5. Treated uncertain risks as unimportant risks, and assumed these would be negated by the
proponent’s yet-to-be-developed mitigation measures.

Below, we expand on these five fundamental flaws that invalidate the report as an appropriate basis for
your Cabinet to approve the Project.

1. Failure to Articulate a Rationale

The panel failed to articulate a rationale for numerous findingsi, and failed to satisfy the criteria of
“justification, transparency and intelligibility” expected of administrative tribunals.ii Such a rationale is
fundamental to both scientific and legal judgment. The Panel’s charge was to determine whether the
Project is in the public interest of British Columbians and Canadians, based on a critical analysis of the Project’s economic, environmental and social benefits, costs and risks over the long term. Instead of such a balanced consideration, the panel justified its recommendation of the project by summarizing the panel’s understanding of environmental burdens in five short paragraphsiii and judging that these adverse environmental outcomes were outweighed by the potential societal and economic benefits.
Without a rationale for why the expected benefits justify the risks (e.g., why must an environmental
effect be certain and/or permanently widespread to outweigh economic benefits that themselves are
subject to some uncertainty?), any ruling of overall public interest is unsupportable.

2. Consideration of Narrow Risks but Broad Benefits, Omission of Key Issues

The panel included in its deliberation a broad view of the economic benefits, but an asymmetrically
narrow view of the environmental risks and costs. The need for the Project as stipulated by Enbridge
includes consideration of the enhanced revenues that would accrue from higher prices for oil sands
products in Asian markets. These enhanced revenues are benefits to producers from production. The
environmental risks, however, were only considered if they are associated with transport, not
production or later burning/consumption. All negative effects associated with the enhanced production
of oil sands bitumen, or the burning of such products in Asia, were excluded, as were greenhouse gas emissions generally.iv This exclusion of the project's contributions to increased atmospheric emissions undermines Canada’s formal international commitments and federal policies on greenhouse emissions.v Other key issues omitted include the difficulty of containing freshwater spills under ice, as has already been demonstrated on the Athabasca River from oil sands developments.vi

3. Reliance on Information from the Proponent, without External Evaluation

On critical issues, the panel relied on information from the proponent without external assessment. For example, on the pivotal matter of the risks of a diluted bitumen tanker spill, the panel concluded that a major spill was unlikely.vii Yet, a professional engineers’ report concluded that the quantitative risk assessment upon which the panel relied was so flawed as to provide no meaningful results.viii Regarding the consequences of such a spill, the panel relied on the proponent’s modeling to conclude that the adverse consequences of a spill would not be widespreadix or permanent,x even as it acknowledged that there is much uncertainty about the behavior of diluted bitumen in the marine environment. That modeling discounted the prospect that diluted bitumen could be transported long distance by currents, when the product submerges, as it does under a wide range of conditions.xi Thus, the panel may have underestimated the scale of potential damages. Because the proponent is in a clear conflict of interest, an independent assessment of potential oil spill damage should have been commissioned.

4. Contradiction of Official Government Documents


A decision on the potential for significant adverse environmental effects on any species or habitat must be consistent with the government’s own official documents. The panel’s conclusions that marine mammals in general will not suffer significant adverse cumulative effects stands in direct contradiction
to the government's own management and recovery plans.xii For example, the Recovery Plan for large
whales (blue, fin, and sei whales—species-at-risk under the federal Species at Risk Act, SARA) lists
“collisions with vessels, noise from industrial … activities, [and] pollution” as imminent threats —all
three threats are associated with the NGP proposalxiii. Contamination has also been identified as a threat for other marine mammals: the management plans for both the sea otterxiv and the Steller sea lionxv identify a risk from marine contamination—in particular the acute effects of large oil spills, but also from the toxicity of smaller, chronic spills that are likely to increase proportionally with vessel traffic. The panel also failed to account for newly identified critical habitat of the humpback whale and failed to specify how the proponent’s mitigation plan would reduce the significant risks from increased shipping, a serious threat identified in the recently published Recovery Strategy for the species.xvi A plan to manage the threats to the species and its habitat is a legal requirement given that the humpback whale is a species of Special Concern under SARA.

5. Inappropriate Treatment of Uncertain Risks, and Reliance on Yet-To-Be-Developed Mitigation
Measures


The panel effectively treated uncertain risks as unimportant. For instance, Northern Gateway omitted
specified mitigation plans for numerous environmental damages or accidents. This omission produced
fundamental uncertainties about the environmental impacts of Northern Gateway’s proposal
(associated with the behaviour of bitumen in saltwater, adequate dispersion modeling, etc.). The panel
recognized these fundamental uncertainties, but sought to remedy them by demanding the future
submission of plans. However, the panel described no mechanism by which the evaluation of these
plans could reverse their ruling. Since these uncertainties are primarily a product of omitted mitigation
plans, such plans should have been required and evaluated before the JRP report was issued. To assume that such uncertainties would not influence the final decision of the panel, is to sanction the proponent’s strategic omissions, and effectively discount these potentially significant risks of the
Project, to the detriment of the interests of the Canadian public.

Conclusion

The JRP report could have offered guidance, both to concerned Canadians in forming their opinions on
the project and to the federal government in its official decision. However, given the major flaws
detailed above, the report does not provide the needed guidance. Rather, the JRP's conclusion—that
Canadians would be better off with than without the Northern Gateway Project given all
“environmental, social, and economic considerations”xvii—stands unsupported.

Given such flaws, the JRP report is indefensible as a basis to judge in favour of the Project.

Sincerely,
Kai MA Chan, Associate Professor, University of British Columbia

Anne Salomon, Assistant Professor, Simon Fraser University

Eric B Taylor, Professor, University of British Columbia


Elena Bennett, Professor, McGill University

James M Byrne, Professor, University of Lethbridge

Michael Barkusky, Founding Director, Pacific Institute for Ecological Economics

Suzanne Bayley, Emeritus Professor, University of Alberta

Ratana Chuenpagdee, Professor, Memorial University

Simon Donner, Associate Professor, University of British Columbia

Edward Gregr, Professional Biologist / Recovery Plan Author, University of British Columbia

Eric Higgs, Professor, University of Victoria

George Hoberg, Professor, University of British Columbia

Kathryn Harrison, Professor, University of British Columbia

Don Jackson, Professor, University of Toronto

Mark Jaccard, Professor, Simon Fraser University

Jeremy Kerr, Professor, University of Ottawa
Ken Lertzman, Professor, Simon Fraser University


Sarah Otto, Professor, University of British Columbia

Evgeny Pakhomov, Professor, University of British Columbia

Paul Paquet, Assistant Professor, University of Victoria

Wendy Palen, Assistant Professor, Simon Fraser University

David Schindler, Professor, University of Alberta

Douw Steyn, Professor, University of British Columbia

Ussif Rashid Sumaila, Professor, University of British Columbia

Boris Worm, Professor, Dalhousie University


Abe Torchinsky, Medical Student, University of British Columbia

Alan Lewis, Emeritus Professor, University of British Columbia, Earth & Ocean Sciences

Alan Sinclair, Fisheries Scientist, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Retired

Alec Blair, Ph.D. Candidate, McGill University

Alejandra Echeverri, M.Sc. Candidate, University of British Columbia, Institute for Resources,
Environment and Sustainability

Alexandra Muhametsafina, Graduate Student, Wilfrid Laurier University

Alina Fisher, Research Manager, University of Victoria

Alisha Hackinen, M.Sc. Candidate in Soil Science, University of British Columbia

Allison Thompson, Master's Student, University of British Columbia

Alys Granados, Ph.D. Candidate, University of British Columbia

Alysson Vrielink, Electrical Engineer Ph.D. Student, Stanford University

Amanda Mathys, Ph.D. Student, University of British Columbia

Andrena Moore, Member, Canadian avalanche association

Andrew Huang, M.Sc. Student, University of British Columbia

Andrew Littlejohn, Mr, Harvard University

Andrew Riseman, Associate Professor, University of British Columbia, LFS

Anna Shoemaker, Ph.D., Uppsala University

Anne Dalziel, Ph.D., Universite Laval

Anne Paling, Environmental Scientist, Vaisala

Anne Steino, Ph.D., Pharmaceutical Industry

Antje Ellermann, Professor, University of British Columbia

Antonia Mills, Professor, University of Northern British Columbia

Antony Porcino, Project Director (CAMEO/Research), University of British Columbia

Arne Mooers, Professor, Simon Fraser University

Art Fredeen, Professor, University of Northern BC

Aylin Ulman, Researcher, M.Sc. Student, Sea Around Us, University of British Columbia

Barrie Webster, Professor (retired), University of Manitoba

Beatrice Proudfoot, Biology Student

Ben Seghers, Lecturer, Oxford University

Bernardo Ranieri, Conservation Biologist. Ph.D. Student, University of British Columbia, Institute for
Resources, Environment and Sustainability

Bina Joy

Blake Poland, Associate Professor, University of Toronto

Bradley Walters, Professor of Geography & Environment, Mount Allison University

Brenda Ross, CAMEO Program

Brendon Larson, Associate Professor, University of Waterloo

Brett Favaro, Research Scientist, Memorial University

Brett Howard, Graduate Student, Simon Fraser University


Brian Starzomski, Ian McTaggart-Cowan Professor, University of Victoria

Brianna Wright, Graduate Student, University of British Columbia

Bridget Bergquist, Assistant Professor, University of Toronto

Brock Ramshaw, M.Sc., University of British Columbia

Bruce Hunter, Professor, Seneca College

Bruna Amaral, M.Sc. Student, University of Queensland

C.S. Holing, Emeritus Professor, University of Florida

Cael Cook, Student

Cameron Egan, Ph.D. Candidate, University of British Columbia

Cameron Webster, Research Assistant, University of British Columbia

Caragh Geiser, Scientist

Carling Gerlinsky, Research Assistant, University of British Columbia, Fisheries Center

Carol Pollock, Professor of Teaching, University of British Columbia, Dept. of Zoology

Cathryn Murray, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of British Columbia

Charles J. Krebs, Emeritus Professor of Zoology, University of British Columbia

Charlotte Whitney, Ph.D. Student, University of Victoria

Chico Birrell, M.Sc., University of Queensland

Chris Aikman, Associate Research Officer, Retired NRC scientist

Chris Barrington-Leigh, Assistant Professor, McGill University

Chris Darimont, Assistant Professor, University of Victoria

Chris Joseph, Researcher, Sustainable Planning Research Group, Simon Fraser University

Christian Beaudrie, Ph.D. Candidate, University of British Columbia

Christina Roberts, Retired Instructor & Associate Prof., University of Toronto, Harvard University,
University of Calgary

Christopher Raymond, Senior Research Fellow, Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia

Cintia Camila Silva Angelieri, Ph.D. Student, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Colleen Milligan

Constance Finney, Ph.D.

Cory Pahl

Courtney Halvorson, Student, Marine Science

Crispin Jordan, Ph.D., University of Edinburgh

Dalal Al-Abdulrazzak, Ph.D. Candidate, University of British Columbia

Dallas Genereaux, Graduate Student, University of British Columbia

Dana Lepofsky, Professor, Simon Fraser University

Danica Patton, Ph.D., Stanford University

Daniel Rainham, Associate Professor, Environmental Science, Dalhousie University

Danny Harvey, Professor, Dept. of Geography, University of Toronto

Darren Irwin, Associate Professor, University of British Columbia

David Ng, Director, AMBL, Michael Smith Laboratories, University of British Columbia

David R. Boyd, Adjunct Professor, Simon Fraser University

David Roberts, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Alberta

David W Mayhood, President, Lead Consultant, FWR Freshwater Research Limited

Dawn Hemingway, Associate Professor, University of Northern BC

Dayna Nadine Scott, Associate Professor, Osgoode Hall Law School and the Faculty of Environmental
Studies, York University

Deb Chen, Ph.D. Candidate, University of British Columbia

Deb Niemeier , Professor , University of California

Debra Wertman, Insect ecologist, University of Victoria


Dennis Murray, Canada Research Chair, Trent University

Diana Allen, Professor, Simon Fraser University

Diane Srivastava, Professor, University of British Columbia

Dolph Schluter, Professor, University of British Columbia

Dominique Roche, Ph.D., Australian National University

Donald Spady, Adjunct Professor Pediatrics & Public Health, University of Alberta

Doug Prest, Professional Engineer, Professional Engineers Ontario

Edd Hammill, Lecturer, University of Technology, Sydney

Edi de Pencier

Eduardo Martins, Ph.D., University of British Columbia

Elaine Hsiao, Ph.D. Student, Liu Scholar, University of British Columbia

Elena Lazos, Professor in Socio-environmental Studies, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

Eliana Jacobs, Student, University of British Columbia

Elizabeth Kleynhans, Ph.D. Candidate, University of British Columbia

Elizabeth Law, Ph.D. Student, University of Queensland

Elizabeth Pendray, Research Assistant, Simon Fraser University

Ellika Crichton, Student, Simon Fraser University

Elysabeth Theberge, M.Sc. candidate, University of Ottawa

Emily Anderson, Ph.D. Candidate, University of British Columbia

Emily Brault, Graduate Student, University of California Santa Cruz

Emily Darling, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of North Carolina

Emily Rubidge, Visiting Scientist, University of Victoria

Emma Burgess, Student, University of Queensland

Eric Keating, Mr

Eric Treml, Research Fellow, University of Melbourne

Erica Frank, Professor and Canada Research Chair, University of British Columbia

Erin Crockett, M.Sc. Student, University of Oxford

Esther Speck

Eva Stredulinsky, M.Sc. candidate, University of Victoria

Evan Morien, Computational Biologist, University of British Columbia

Florie Cai, Student, University of British Columbia

Fred Bunnell, Emeritus Professor, University of British Columbia

Gabrielle Grant

Geoff Bernz

George Ellenton

George McKibbon, adjunct professor, University of Guelph

Gerardo Ceballos, Professor, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Instituto de Ecologia

Gilles Wendling, President, Ph.D, P.Eng, GW Solutions

Gordon Laxer, Professor Emeritus, University of Alberta

Gunnar Schade, Associate Professor, Texas A&M University

Gwylim Blackburn, Biologist, University of British Columbia

Hannah Wauchope

Hannah Wittman, Assoc Prof, University of British Columbia

Harald Yurk, Research Associate, Behavioral Ecologist in Bioacoustics, Vancouver Aquarium

Heike Lotze, Associate Professor, Dalhousie University

Helen King, Ph.D., Cranfield University

Ian Colquhoun, Chair, M.Sc. Environment and Sustainability, Western University

Ignacio Palomo, Ph.D., BC3


Isabelle Cote, Professor, Simon Fraser University

J Shiller, Aquatic ecologist, University of British Columbia

J Thomas Beatty, Professor, University of British Columbia

James Bernier, Biologist

James D Johnson, Associate Professor, University of British Columbia

James Grant, Professor, Biology, Concordia University

James K. Rowe, Assistant Professor, University of Victoria

James S Clark, Nicholas Professor of Global Environmental Change, Duke University

Jamie Leathem, M.Sc., University of British Columbia

Jana Vamosi, Associate Professor, University of Calgary

Jane Watson, University-College Professor, Vancouver Island University

Jason Read, Instructor, University of British Columbia

Jean-Sebastien Moore, Ph.D., Universite Laval

Jedediah Brodie, Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia

Jeff MacAdams, Graduate Student, University of Victoria

Jeffrey C. Ho, Ph.D. Student, Stanford University

Jeffrey Charters, M.Sc., Technician, University of Guelph

Jenn Burt, Ph.D. Student, Simon Fraser University

Jennifer N Harding, Ph.D. Candidate, Simon Fraser University

Jenny L. McCune, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Guelph

Jessica Dempsey, Assistant Professor, University of Victoria

Jessica Forrest, Assistant Professor, University of Ottawa

Jessica Lu, Student, University of British Columbia

Jessica Reeves, Faculty, Quest University Canada

Jessica Schultz, M.Sc. Student, Simon Fraser University

Jessica Walsh, Ph.D. Student Conservation Ecology, University of Cambridge

Joan Kleypas, Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Jocelyn Gifford, SGI Green Party

Jocelyn Nelson, M.Sc., University of British Columbia

Jody Reimer, M.Sc., University of Alberta

John D. McPhail, Professor Emeritus, University of British Columbia

John Larda

John R. Post, Professor, University of Calgary

John Reynolds, Professor, Simon Fraser University

John Robinson, Associate Provost, Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Institute for Resources,
Environment and Sustainability, Dept. of Geography

John Smol, Professor and Canada Research Chair in Environmental Change, Queen's University

John Volpe, Associate Professor, University of Victoria

Jonathan Moore, Assistant Professor, Simon Fraser University

Jonathan Witt, Associate Professor, Dept. of Biology, University of Waterloo

Jonn Axsen, Assistant Professor, Simon Fraser University, School of Resource and Environmental
Management

Jordi Honey-Roses, Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia

Joshua Silberg, MRM Candidate, Simon Fraser University

JR Welch, Associate Professor and Canada Research Chair (Tier 2), Simon Fraser University, Archaeology,
School of Resource & Environmental Mgmt.

Judith Myers, Professor Emerita, University of British Columbia

Julia Atkins, Abbotsford Regional Hospital


Julia Gustavsen, Ph.D. Student, Biological Oceanography, University of British Columbia

Julia K. Baum, Assistant Professor, University of Victoria

Jutta Beher, Biologist, University of Queensland

Karen Cooke, Research manager, University of British Columbia School of Nursing

Karen Golinski, Honorary Research Associate, University of British Columbia

Karena Shaw, Associate Professor and Director, University of Victoria, School of Environmental Studies

Kate Kirby, Ph.D., University of Toronto

Katherine Acheson, Associate Professor, University of Waterloo

Katherine L. Parker, Professor, University of Northern British Columbia

Katherine Proctor, Ethnoecologist

Kathleen MacLeod, Professor, University of British Columbia

Kathryn Adams, Student, King's University College

Katie Gale, M.Sc., Memorial University of Newfoundland

Ken Hall, Professor Emeritus, University of British Columbia

Kenneth Denman, Adjunct Professor, University of Victoria

Kiely McFarlane, Graduate Student, University of British Columbia

Kimberley Langley, BLS, BA

Kitty Corbett, Professor, Simon Fraser University

Kyla Farmer, Alumni, Carleton University

Kyle Lamont, Funktion Design

Laura Benestan, Ph.D. Student, Universite Laval

Laura Fedoruk, M.Sc., University of British Columbia

Laura Wegener Parfrey, Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia

Laurie Chan, Director and Canada Research Chair in Toxicology and Environmental Health, University of Ottawa, Center for Advanced Research in Environmental Genomics

Lawrence Dill, Professor Emeritus, Simon Fraser University

Leah Honka, M.Sc. Student, Simon Fraser University

Lee Cain, Director of Recreation, Anacostia Watershed Society

Lena Molinari, Environmental Outreach Professional

Lenore Fahrig, Professor, Carleton University

Lia Chalifour, Biologist, University of Victoria

Linda Jennings, Assistant Curator, Beaty Biodiversity Museum

Lindsay Der, Ph.D. Candidate, Stanford University

Lisa McDonnell, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of British Columbia, Faculty of Science

Lisa Westerhoff, Ph.D. candidate, University of British Columbia

Locke Rowe, Professor, University of Toronto

Lorri Lapp

Louis Bernatchez, Professor, Universite Laval

Louise Chavarie, Ph.D. Student, University of Alberta

Lucas Fehr

Lucy Rodina, Ph.D. Student, University of British Columbia, Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability

Luke A. Rogers, M.Sc. Student, University of Toronto

Lyn Baldwin, Associate Professor, Thompson Rivers University

Lynne Quarmby, Professor, Simon Fraser University

Maayan Kreitzman, Ph.D. Student, University of British Columbia, Institute for Resources Environment
and Sustainability

Margaret Steyn


Margo Tamez, Assistant Professor, University of British Columbia

Margot Parkes, Associate Professor, University of Northern British Columbia

Marianne Abraham

Marieke Beaulieu, M.Sc., Universite de Sherbrooke

Marina Winterbottom, Marine Biologist, Dalhousie University

Marisa Brook, Ph.D. Student, University of Toronto

Mark S. Boyce, Professor of Ecology & Alberta Conservation Association Chair in Fisheries & Wildlife, University of Alberta

Martha Stark, Adjunct Professor, University of Northern British Columbia

Martin Bunch, Professor, York University

Martin Krkosek, Assistant Professor, University of Toronto

Mary Hufford, Senior Research Scientist, Virginia Tech

Matt Dolf, Graduate Student, University of British Columbia

Matthew Ladd, Ph.D. Candidate, University of Ottawa

Matthew Lapointe, Timmins

Matthew Mitchell, Ph.D., McGill University & University of Queensland

Matthew Taccogna, Graduate Student, University of British Columbia

Matthew Wagstaff, Research Assistant, University of British Columbia

Maureen May

Maureen Nadeau, Student, University of British Columbia

Maxwell A. Cameron, Professor, University of British Columbia

Maxwell Sykes, M.Sc. Student Resource Management, Simon Fraser University, Energy and Materials
Research Group

Meaghan Labine, Ph.D., University of Manitoba

Megan Osmond-Jones, Research Assistant, Thompson Rivers University

Meinhard Doelle, Professor, Dalhousie University

Michael Brauer, Professor, University of British Columbia

Michael E. Mann, Distinguished Professor and Director of Earth System Science Center, Penn State
University

Michael Gillingham, Professor, University of Northern British Columbia

Michael Russello, Associate Professor, University of British Columbia

Michelle Moore

Michelle Nelson, Ph.D. Candidate, Simon Fraser University

Milind Kandlikar, Professor, University of British Columbia, Institute for Resources Environment and Sustainability

Nancy Turner, Distinguished professor, University of Victoria

Natalie Ban, Assistant professor, University of Victoria

Natalie Hunter

Nathan Toh, Research Assistant, University of British Columbia

Nicholas Vagelatos, Ph.D.

Nick Dulvy, Professor, Simon Fraser University

Nicole Shumway, Research Ecologist, University of Queensland

Nigel Haggan, Ph.D., University of British Columbia

Nikos Christodoulou, Ph.D., Nuclear engineering specialist

Noah Mitchell

Olivia Festy, Ph.D., Queen Mary University

Paige Olmsted, Ph.D. Student, University of British Columbia

Pamela Zevit, Registered Professional. Biologist, Principal Adamah Consultants


Pascale Gibeau, Ph.D. Student and Biologist, Simon Fraser University

Patricia Balvanera, Professor, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

Paul Beckwith, Part-time Professor/Full-time Ph.D. Student, University of Ottawa

Paul Bentzen, Professor, Dalhousie University

Paul R. Ehrlich, Bing Professor of Population Studies, Biology Dept., Stanford University

Perrier, Ph.D., Universite Laval

Peter Arcese, Professor, FRBC Chair, University of British Columbia

Peter Rankin, Mr, Marine and coastal scientist

Philip H. Austin, Associate Professor, University of British Columbia

Philippe Henry, Assistant professor, University of Northern British Columbia

Philippe Le Billon, Professor, University of British Columbia

Rebecca G Martone, Program Lead, Stanford University, Center for Ocean Solutions

Rebecca Seifert, Master's Student, Simon Fraser University

Rebecca Witter, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of British Columbia

Rebekah Jones, Coastal Resources Scientist, Louisiana State University

Regina Bestbier, M.Sc., University of British Columbia

RenÇù Dyrborg, Natural & Historical Facilitator

Rene Beyers, Research Associate, University of British Columbia

Renee Duclos

Rhea Paniesin, Instructor of Sociology and Psychology, Mount Saint Mary College

Richard Schuster, Ph.D. Candidate, University of British Columbia

Robby Walker, Student

Robert B. Gibson, Professor, Environment and Resource Studies, University of Waterloo

Robert DeWreede, Professor Emeritus, University of British Columbia

Robert Howarth, David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology & Environmental Biology, Cornell University

Robert Stupka, Engineer

Roberta Fulthorpe, Professor and Graduate Chair, University of Toronto Scarborough

Robyn Burnham, Associate Professor, University of Michigan

Roland Alcock, Ph.D.

Romney McPhie, Biologist, Dalhousie University

Ronald Gibson, Associate Clinical Professor, University of British Columbia

Sameer Shah, Graduate Student, University of British Columbia

Sandra Binning, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Neuchatel

Sandra Johnson, Ph.D., QUT

Sandra Solomon

Sara Harris, Senior Instructor, University of British Columbia

Sarah Klain, Ph.D. Student, University of British Columbia

Sarah MacInnes, Postdoctoral Fellow, Stanford University

Scott A Mandia, Asst. Chair/Professor Physical Sciences, Suffolk County Community College

Scott Findlay, Associate Professor, University of Ottawa

Sean Cox, Associate Professor, Simon Fraser University

Sean Godwin, Graduate Student, Simon Fraser University

Sean Naman, Graduate Student, Dept. of Zoology, University of British Columbia

Sebastian Pardo, Ph.D. Student, Simon Fraser University

Sebastian Scheer, Ph.D., University of British Columbia

Sebastien Renaut, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of British Columbia

Sheryn Sauve, OLIP

Silja Hund, Ph.D. Student, University of British Columbia

Siobhan Chandler, Ph.D., University of Waterloo

Sonja Wilson, M.Sc., P. Eng., University of British Columbia

Stephanie Grand, Research associate, University of British Columbia

Stephen, Associate Professor, University of Northern British Columbia

Stephen Chessor

Stephen Rader, Professor of Chemistry, University of Northern British Columbia

Steve Easterbrook, Professor of Computer Science, University of Toronto

Steven Vamosi, Associate Professor, University of Calgary

Stuart Murray, Canada Research Chair, Carleton University

Susan Shirley, Research Associate, Oregon State University

Susanne C. Moser, Director, Susanne Moser Research & Consulting

T. E. Reimchen, Adjunct Professor, University of Victoria

Tara Ivanochko, Director, Environmental Science, University of British Columbia

Tara Martin, Ph.D., University of British Columbia

Tara McBryan, M.Sc. Student, University of British Columbia

Tara Moran, Research Associate, Stanford University

Terry Hughes, Retired NRC Senior Research Officer

Terry Robinson

Thea Kurdi, Instructor, Sheridan College

Thomas D Sisk, Professor, Northern Arizona University

Thomas De Pree, Student, Columbia University

Thomas F. Pedersen, Executive Director, University of Victoria, Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions

Thora O'Grady, Raincoast Science

Tim Storr, Assistant Professor, Simon Fraser University

Tim Vines, Ph.D., University of British Columbia

Timothy McDaniels, Professor, University of British Columbia, Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, School of Community and Regional Planning

Toby Spribille, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Montana

Tony Pitcher, Professor of Fisheries, University of British Columbia

Trevor Hancock, Professor and Senior Scholar, University of Victoria, School of Public Health and Social Policy

Victoria Francis, MA Student, Memorial University

Villy Christensen, Professor, University of British Columbia

Warren Walker

Wendy Watkins, Data Librarian, Carleton University

William Atlas, M.Sc., Simon Fraser University

William Burt, Ph.D. Student

William E. Neill, Professor Emeritus Zoology, University of British Columbia

William Harrower, Ph.D. Candidate, University of British Columbia, Dept. of Botany

William Ramey, Professor of Teaching, University of British Columbia

William Rees, Professor Emeritus, University of British Columbia

Zheng (Jackie) Yip, Ph.D. Student, University of British Columbia

Zoe Meletis, Associate Professor, University of Northern British Columbia
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
i Consider, for example, the views of the panel on the consequences and significance of spills, Report of the Joint Review Panel for the Enbridge Northern Gateway Project, Volume 2, Section 7.2.5, beginning on page 128. On page 129 we read “The Panel finds that there is potential for some oil to sink if it interacts with sediment or suspended particulate matter, or over the long term, due to natural weathering processes.” The Panel has discounted the possibility that bitumen residue could submerge in the short term in the absence of particulates. It is impossible to know how they reached this conclusion, which turns out to be wrong.

ii Dunsmuir v New Brunswick, 2008 SCC 9: A court conducting a review for reasonableness inquires into the qualities that make a decision reasonable, referring both to the process of articulating the reasons and to
outcomes. In judicial review, reasonableness is concerned mostly with the existence of justification, transparency and intelligibility within the decision-making process. But it is also concerned with whether the decision falls within a range of possible, acceptable outcomes which are defensible in respect of the facts and law. (at para 47)

iii The Panel judged that some risks were significant, but with stated limitations. For example, for the Project’s contribution to cumulative effects on caribou and grizzly bears, the Panel judged the effects significant (“at the low end”; Northern Gateway JRP Report, Vol 2, p.10). For the “unlikely event of a large oil spill”, the Panel found that it “would not cause permanent, widespread damage” (Northern Gateway JRP Report, Vol 2, p.12). But see this letter’s points 2-5 regarding the Panel’s mischaracterizations of risks.

 iv Report of the Joint Review Panel for the Enbridge Northern Gateway Project Volume 1, page 17 and Panel Session Results and Decision issued January 19, 2011, pages 12-14:
 https://docs.neb-one.gc.ca/ll-eng/llisapi.dll/fetch/2000/90464/90552/384192/620327/624909/662325/A22-3_-_Panel_Session_Results_and_Decision_A1X2L8.pdf?nodeid=662117&vernum=-2

For the general exclusion of climate change, see :
http://gatewaypanel.review-examen.gc.ca/clf-nsi/fq/rcmmndtn-eng.html#s14

 v Canada agreed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, in order to limit global warming to less than 2°C, to 17% below 2005 levels by the year 2020. Canada’s recent report to the UN, however, projected that our emissions will be 24% above our international target in 2020 and 78% percent of the growth in emissions by 2020 is projected to come from oil sands production. Canada’s Emissions Trends – 2013. Environment Canada Report October 2013.
P24: “Specifically, emissions from oil sands mining are projected to more than double over the 2005 to 2020 time period. Emissions from in situ production are expected to increase from 11 Mt in 2005 to 55 Mt in 2020.”
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ges-ghg/985F05FB-4744-4269-8C1A-D443F8A86814/1001-
Canada's%20Emissions%20Trends%202013_e.pdf

vi This may be the most serious and likely risk. For example, already two spills have occurred on the Athabasca River under ice. In the first of these, in 1982, a fire at Suncor in January released a moderate amount of oily substances; due to the inability to contain the spill, these substances travelled all the way to Lake Athabasca, closing the fishery for 2 years. In October 2013, the tailings pond breached at Obed mine. This spill continued to spread and could not even be assessed until the ice left more than six months later.

 vii “The Panel finds that a large spill, due to a malfunction or accident, from the pipeline facilities, terminal, or tankers, is not likely. Northern Gateway JRP Report, Vol 2, p 168

viii Concerned Professional Engineers. 2014. Flawed analysis, irresponsible approval. White Paper #1.
http://concernedengineers.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Whitepaper-1-Flawed-analysis-irresponsible-
approval.pdf

ix JRP Report Vol 2, p 129: “The Panel finds that a large terrestrial, freshwater, or marine oil or condensate spill would cause significant adverse environmental effect and that the adverse effects would not be permanent or widespread.”

x It is not necessary to conclude that a consequence would be permanent to establish that the consequence is so long-lived as to represent a significant adverse effect. The effects of the Exxon Valdez are apparent after more than 25 years:
http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/Exxon_Valdez_25YearsAfter_508_0.pdf

xi Crosby, S., R. Fay, C. Groark, A. Kani, J.R. Smith, and T. Sullivan (March 2013) Transporting Alberta’s Oil Sands Products: Defining the issues and addressing the risks.
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxub2Fhb2lsc2FuZHNwcm9qZWN0fGd4Ojc5NmVlMDk3NjczNjIzNGU. Accessed May 2, 2014

xii Management plans are intended to prevent species listed as Special Concern from becoming endangered or threatened.

xiii Gregr, E.J., J. Calambokidis, L. Convey, J.K.B. Ford, R.I. Perry, L. Spaven, M. Zacharias. 2006. Recovery Strategy for Blue, Fin, and Sei Whales (Balaenoptera musculus, B. physalus, and B. borealis) in Pacific Canadian Waters. In Species at Risk Act Recovery Strategy Series. Vancouver: Fisheries and Oceans Canada. vii + 53 pp.

xiv Fisheries and Oceans Canada. 2014. Management Plan for the Sea Otter (Enhydra lutris) in Canada. Species at Risk Act Management Plan Series. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Ottawa. iv + 50 pp.

xv Fisheries and Oceans Canada. 2010. Management Plan for the Steller Sea Lion (Eumetopias jubatus) in Canada [Final]. Species at Risk Act Management Plan Series. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Ottawa. vi + 69 pp.

xvi DFO, 2013, Recovery Strategy for the North Pacific Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) in Canada, http://www.sararegistry.gc.ca/virtual_sara/files/plans/rs_rb_pac_nord_hbw_1013_e.pdf

xvii JRP Report Volume 1, page 11.



related links on stormidae:

Northern Gateway and The Enbridge 21
Raife Mair vs the Enbrige pipeline
Canada Day 2012: On Guard for Enbridge
 ...about oil tankers
random science 10: Harper vs Science

 

 


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